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Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China
Zhang, Xianliang1; Yan, Xiaodong2; Chen, Zhenju1,3
Corresponding AuthorChen, Zhenju(zhenjuchen@hotmail.com)
2016-07-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
Volume29Issue:14Pages:5355-5361
AbstractA method was developed, based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA), to reconstruct regional mean temperature. Different from the arithmetic mean, which gives equal weight to each chronology, BMA weights the chronologies according to their contributions to the actual temperature variances. Thus, BMA holds advantages in integrating chronologies to reconstruct the regional mean temperature. The regional mean temperature for the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was reconstructed for the past four centuries (1628-2005) using BMA, which performed better than the simple arithmetic mean. The reconstruction explained 41.33% of total observed temperature variances during the period of 1961-2005. The warmest decade was found to be 1840-50 and the coldest 1810-20 prior to the instrumental period. The reconstructed temperature showed a high correlation (r > 0.7, p < 0.001) with gridded observed temperatures in most grid cells of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, suggesting that the regional temperature changes were captured well by the reconstruction.
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0603.1
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41271066] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570632] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570473]
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000379209800018
PublisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Citation statistics
Cited Times:13[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/126966
Collection中国科学院金属研究所
Corresponding AuthorChen, Zhenju
Affiliation1.Shenyang Agr Univ, Tree Ring Lab, Coll Forestry, Shenyang, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Qingyuan Forest CERN, Shenyang, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,Chen, Zhenju. Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2016,29(14):5355-5361.
APA Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,&Chen, Zhenju.(2016).Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,29(14),5355-5361.
MLA Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 29.14(2016):5355-5361.
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