| Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China | |
| Zhang, Xianliang1; Yan, Xiaodong2; Chen, Zhenju1,3 | |
| Corresponding Author | Chen, Zhenju(zhenjuchen@hotmail.com) |
| 2016-07-01 | |
| Source Publication | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| Volume | 29Issue:14Pages:5355-5361 |
| Abstract | A method was developed, based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA), to reconstruct regional mean temperature. Different from the arithmetic mean, which gives equal weight to each chronology, BMA weights the chronologies according to their contributions to the actual temperature variances. Thus, BMA holds advantages in integrating chronologies to reconstruct the regional mean temperature. The regional mean temperature for the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was reconstructed for the past four centuries (1628-2005) using BMA, which performed better than the simple arithmetic mean. The reconstruction explained 41.33% of total observed temperature variances during the period of 1961-2005. The warmest decade was found to be 1840-50 and the coldest 1810-20 prior to the instrumental period. The reconstructed temperature showed a high correlation (r > 0.7, p < 0.001) with gridded observed temperatures in most grid cells of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, suggesting that the regional temperature changes were captured well by the reconstruction. |
| Funding Organization | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0603.1 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271066] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570632] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570473] |
| WOS Research Area | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS Subject | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS ID | WOS:000379209800018 |
| Publisher | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/126966 |
| Collection | 中国科学院金属研究所 |
| Corresponding Author | Chen, Zhenju |
| Affiliation | 1.Shenyang Agr Univ, Tree Ring Lab, Coll Forestry, Shenyang, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Qingyuan Forest CERN, Shenyang, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,Chen, Zhenju. Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2016,29(14):5355-5361. |
| APA | Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,&Chen, Zhenju.(2016).Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,29(14),5355-5361. |
| MLA | Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 29.14(2016):5355-5361. |
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