How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

doi:10.1111/gcb.13847

IMR OpenIR

	How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change
	Liang, Yu 1,2; Duveneck, Matthew J.2; Gustafson, Eric J.3; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.2,4; Thompson, Jonathan R.2
通讯作者	Liang, Yu(liangyu@iae.ac.cn)
	2018
发表期刊	GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN	1354-1013
卷号	24 期号:1 页码:E335-E351
摘要	Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition-induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed a series of disturbance scenarios to represent varied disturbance regimes in terms of both disturbance extent and intensity. We simulated forest succession by incorporating climate change under a high-emissions future, disturbances, seed dispersal, and competition using the landscape model parameterized with forest inventory data. Tree species range boundary shifts in the next century were quantified as the change in the location of the 5th (the trailing edge) and 95th (the leading edge) percentiles of the spatial distribution of simulated species. Simulated tree species range boundary shifts in New England over the next century were far below (usually < 20 km) that required to track the velocity of temperature change (usually more than 110 km over 100 years) under a high-emissions scenario. Simulated species` ranges shifted northward at both the leading edge (northern boundary) and trailing edge (southern boundary). Disturbances may expedite species' recruitment into new sites, but they had little effect on the velocity of simulated range boundary shifts. Range shifts at the trailing edge tended to be associated with photosynthetic capacity, competitive ability for light and seed dispersal ability, whereas shifts at the leading edge were associated only with photosynthetic capacity and competition for light. This study underscores the importance of understanding the role of interspecific competition and disturbance when studying tree range shifts.
关键词	climate change competition disturbance Land Use Plus (LU+) LANDIS-II PnET-Succession seed dispersal tree range shift
资助者	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research Program ; Scenarios Society and Solutions Research Coordination Network
DOI	10.1111/gcb.13847
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0600804] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570461] ; National Science Foundation Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research Program[NSF-DEB 12-37491] ; Scenarios Society and Solutions Research Coordination Network[NSF-DEB-13-38809]
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000426506100026
出版者	WILEY
引用统计	被引频次：108[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/127334
专题	中国科学院金属研究所
通讯作者	Liang, Yu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Ecol, CAS Key Lab Forest Ecol & Management, Shenyang, Liaoning, Peoples R China 2.Harvard Univ, Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA USA 3.US Forest Serv, Inst Appl Ecosyst Studies, Northern Res Stn, USDA, Rhinelander, WI USA 4.Aarhus Univ, Ecoinformat & Biodivers Sect, Dept Biosci, Aarhus C, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang, Yu,Duveneck, Matthew J.,Gustafson, Eric J.,et al. How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(1):E335-E351.
APA	Liang, Yu,Duveneck, Matthew J.,Gustafson, Eric J.,Serra-Diaz, Josep M.,&Thompson, Jonathan R..(2018).How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(1),E335-E351.
MLA	Liang, Yu,et al."How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.1(2018):E335-E351.