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Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM
Alternative TitleMulti-Scheme Corrected Dynamic–Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM
Fang Yihe1; Chen Haishan1; Gong Zhiqiang3; Xu Fangshu2; Zhao Chunyu1
2017
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH
ISSN2095-6037
Volume31Issue:6Pages:1085-1095
AbstractBased on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China (NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic-analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic-analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from -0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009-13/1991-95 when using the equally weighted dynamic-analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.
Other AbstractBased on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991–2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China (NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic–analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic–analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from –0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009–13/1991–95 when using the equally weighted dynamic–analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.
KeywordSEASONAL PREDICTION EAST-ASIA TEMPERATURE PACIFIC COMPONENT RAINFALL ENSEMBLE SKILL MODEL LONG summer precipitation northeastern China sea surface temperature El Nino-Southern Oscillation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model dynamic-analogue correction probabilistic prediction
Indexed ByCSCD
Language英语
Funding Project[Science and Technology Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau] ; [Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)] ; [Liaoning Province Agricultural Research and Industrialization Project] ; [China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research]
CSCD IDCSCD:6145595
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/143339
Collection中国科学院金属研究所
Affiliation1.南京大学
2.中国科学院金属研究所
3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies & Climate Monitoring & Diagno, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Fang Yihe,Chen Haishan,Gong Zhiqiang,et al. Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM[J]. JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH,2017,31(6):1085-1095.
APA Fang Yihe,Chen Haishan,Gong Zhiqiang,Xu Fangshu,&Zhao Chunyu.(2017).Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM.JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH,31(6),1085-1095.
MLA Fang Yihe,et al."Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM".JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH 31.6(2017):1085-1095.
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