Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020

IMR OpenIR

	Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020
	Gao, Tianming; Shen, Lei; Shen, Ming; Liu, Litao; Chen, Fengnan; Gao, Li; Shen, L (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, IGSNRR, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.; Shen, L (reprint author), Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.
	2017-07-01
发表期刊	RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
ISSN	1364-0321
卷号	74 页码:522-537
摘要	Previous studies have estimated emissions from China's cement industry for some specific periods, but a trend analysis of historical emissions has not yet been carried out. Based on changes in clinker quality and developments in energy-saving technologies of different clinker kilns, we calculated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions due to cement production in China for the continuous period from 1980 to 2014. Our analysis showed that total CO2 emissions from cement production in China were 1270.55 Mt in 2014, which is 18 times higher than that in 1980. There was a slight reduction in the share of emissions from fuel consumption, while the percentage of process emissions rose at a stable rate. The cement emission factor fell sharply from 852.12 kg/t in 1980 to 513.15 kg/t in 2014. Two scenarios were considered to predict future emissions, namely a baseline scenario (BS) and a best practice scenario (BPS). We found that CO2 emissions could be reduced to 856.62957.91 Mt in 2020, which corresponds to a cement output of 1.86 billion tons. This implies that, by 2020, clinker and cement emission factors will fall to 789.11-840.618 kg/t and 460.55-513.15 kg/t, respectively. By 2020, energy efficiency improvements will be the main driver of emission reductions. Our projections also indicated that emission reductions resulting from process improvements would only account for 1.48% of total direct emissions, even under the BPS scenario. Thus, we suggest that the development of alternative industrial byproducts and fuels, substituting for natural resources, should be a main focus of future innovation efforts toward a sustainable cement industry in China.; Previous studies have estimated emissions from China's cement industry for some specific periods, but a trend analysis of historical emissions has not yet been carried out. Based on changes in clinker quality and developments in energy-saving technologies of different clinker kilns, we calculated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions due to cement production in China for the continuous period from 1980 to 2014. Our analysis showed that total CO2 emissions from cement production in China were 1270.55 Mt in 2014, which is 18 times higher than that in 1980. There was a slight reduction in the share of emissions from fuel consumption, while the percentage of process emissions rose at a stable rate. The cement emission factor fell sharply from 852.12 kg/t in 1980 to 513.15 kg/t in 2014. Two scenarios were considered to predict future emissions, namely a baseline scenario (BS) and a best practice scenario (BPS). We found that CO2 emissions could be reduced to 856.62957.91 Mt in 2020, which corresponds to a cement output of 1.86 billion tons. This implies that, by 2020, clinker and cement emission factors will fall to 789.11-840.618 kg/t and 460.55-513.15 kg/t, respectively. By 2020, energy efficiency improvements will be the main driver of emission reductions. Our projections also indicated that emission reductions resulting from process improvements would only account for 1.48% of total direct emissions, even under the BPS scenario. Thus, we suggest that the development of alternative industrial byproducts and fuels, substituting for natural resources, should be a main focus of future innovation efforts toward a sustainable cement industry in China.
部门归属	[gao, tianming] chinese acad geol sci, imr, 26 baiwanzhuang st, beijing 100037, peoples r china ; [gao, tianming ; shen, lei ; liu, litao] chinese acad sci, igsnrr, 11a datun rd, beijing 100101, peoples r china ; [shen, lei] univ chinese acad sci, beijing 100049, peoples r china ; [shen, ming] wuhan inst dev strategy, wuhan 430017, peoples r china ; [chen, fengnan] state power econ res inst, beijing 102209, peoples r china ; [gao, li] china univ geosci, sch econ & management, wuhan 430074, peoples r china ; [gao, li] chinese acad sci, ipm, 15 zhongguancunbeiyitiao alley, beijing 100190, peoples r china
关键词	Co2 Emissions Cement Industry Emission Factor China
学科领域	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Energy & Fuels
资助者	National Natural Science Foundation of China [41501590, 41271547]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFA0602802]; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2015T80125, 2014M550819]
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/78070
专题	中国科学院金属研究所
通讯作者	Shen, L (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, IGSNRR, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.; Shen, L (reprint author), Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao, Tianming,Shen, Lei,Shen, Ming,et al. Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020[J]. RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS,2017,74:522-537.
APA	Gao, Tianming.,Shen, Lei.,Shen, Ming.,Liu, Litao.,Chen, Fengnan.,...&Shen, L .(2017).Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020.RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS,74,522-537.
MLA	Gao, Tianming,et al."Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020".RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS 74(2017):522-537.