Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0603.1

IMR OpenIR

	Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China
	Zhang, Xianliang 1; Yan, Xiaodong 2; Chen, Zhenju 1,3
通讯作者	Chen, Zhenju(zhenjuchen@hotmail.com)
	2016-07-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN	0894-8755
卷号	29 期号:14 页码:5355-5361
摘要	A method was developed, based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA), to reconstruct regional mean temperature. Different from the arithmetic mean, which gives equal weight to each chronology, BMA weights the chronologies according to their contributions to the actual temperature variances. Thus, BMA holds advantages in integrating chronologies to reconstruct the regional mean temperature. The regional mean temperature for the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was reconstructed for the past four centuries (1628-2005) using BMA, which performed better than the simple arithmetic mean. The reconstruction explained 41.33% of total observed temperature variances during the period of 1961-2005. The warmest decade was found to be 1840-50 and the coldest 1810-20 prior to the instrumental period. The reconstructed temperature showed a high correlation (r > 0.7, p < 0.001) with gridded observed temperatures in most grid cells of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, suggesting that the regional temperature changes were captured well by the reconstruction.
资助者	National Natural Science Foundation of China
DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0603.1
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271066] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570632] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570473]
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000379209800018
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
引用统计	被引频次：19[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/126966
专题	中国科学院金属研究所
通讯作者	Chen, Zhenju
作者单位	1.Shenyang Agr Univ, Tree Ring Lab, Coll Forestry, Shenyang, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Qingyuan Forest CERN, Shenyang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,Chen, Zhenju. Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2016,29(14):5355-5361.
APA	Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,&Chen, Zhenju.(2016).Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,29(14),5355-5361.
MLA	Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 29.14(2016):5355-5361.