Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM

IMR OpenIR

	Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM
其他题名	Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic–Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM
	Fang Yihe 1; Chen Haishan 1; Gong Zhiqiang 3; Xu Fangshu 2; Zhao Chunyu 1
	2017
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH
ISSN	2095-6037
卷号	31 期号:6 页码:1085-1095
摘要	Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China (NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic-analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic-analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from -0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009-13/1991-95 when using the equally weighted dynamic-analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.
其他摘要	Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991–2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China (NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic–analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic–analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from –0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009–13/1991–95 when using the equally weighted dynamic–analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.
关键词	SEASONAL PREDICTION EAST-ASIA TEMPERATURE PACIFIC COMPONENT RAINFALL ENSEMBLE SKILL MODEL LONG summer precipitation northeastern China sea surface temperature El Nino-Southern Oscillation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model dynamic-analogue correction probabilistic prediction
收录类别	CSCD
语种	英语
资助项目	[Science and Technology Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau] ; [Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)] ; [Liaoning Province Agricultural Research and Industrialization Project] ; [China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research]
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6145595
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/143339
专题	中国科学院金属研究所
作者单位	1.南京大学 2.中国科学院金属研究所 3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies & Climate Monitoring & Diagno, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fang Yihe,Chen Haishan,Gong Zhiqiang,et al. Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM[J]. JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH,2017,31(6):1085-1095.
APA	Fang Yihe,Chen Haishan,Gong Zhiqiang,Xu Fangshu,&Zhao Chunyu.(2017).Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM.JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH,31(6),1085-1095.
MLA	Fang Yihe,et al."Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic-Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM".JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH 31.6(2017):1085-1095.